Strongerhead Weekly Financial Market Analysis 18 Feb 2013

1515 on the S&P 500 hold. Do you dare to buy?

On the weekly chart, trend is still up. However, since the recovery Bull Run in 2009, price can stay at the top of its channel for a long time. But it is not common for RSI to get above the overbought zone and stay overbought for long. The last 2 Bull Run in Dec 2011 & Nov 2012, the up leg lasted for 20 weeks and 16 weeks respectively. We are currently into our 13th week up leg.

If you refer to the last week’s analysis, the analysis mentioned that whenever the Bull Run cools off from its overbought state on the RSI, it could either make a move higher, or create a dip. If prices stays above 1515 on the S&P, there’s time and room for bulls to charger further.

VIX (fear index) weekly trend is still down. Daily trend is ranging sideways. But massive divergence on the daily, and Support looks like it is holding well. Possible upside this week.


Mid term view:
Trend is up. 13 weeks into the up leg.

Short term view:
Market in flat mode. 1515 S&P must hold or possible false upside break out or double top. VIX support looking to hold. There should be some downside movement on the market, but bargain hunter might hop in to present VIX from hitting above $15, and stop S&P from dropping below 1500.

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NOTE: All information provided “as is” for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice.