We started last week in bearish mode. Is “Selling in May and go away” starting early in 2013? Let’s take a look at the charts.
Monthly trend is still up n both Dow and S&P. RSI has dipped slightly from its overbought condition. EMA is still some distance away from crossing to confirm a change of behaviour.
Weekly trend on the S&P is dipping slightly more than the Dow. Which means majority of the stock prices are retracing in this dip. This week, should the EMA crossed, it would confirm the change in behaviour.
Daily trend is slopping down. But the price behaviour has displayed a possible kangaroo tail. But we can only confirmed this bullish signal if Monday opens on a bullish note, and S&P stays above 1545. With the struggle between bulls and bears, the daily sentiment is now in neutral zone.
VIX (fear index) weekly is attempting to inch upwards. VIX daily is at the top of the green box I had drawn. If price breaks and stays above the green box, this is a signal for change of market behaviour.
Summary:
Mid term view:
The price behaviour took a dip in the uptrend. Should EMA crossed in the coming week, the trend would finally be taking a pause after 5 consecutive months of gains.
Short term view:
If the green box manages to keep VIX price within the range, the week should start off in bullish note (and S&P must stays above 1545), we are in for at least a bounce with 1562 – 1570 as resistance. If not, we would possibly witness a retest of previous week’s low, and the first line of S&P support at 1525.
Cheers
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NOTE: All information provided “as is” for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice.
