Strongerhead Weekly Financial Market Analysis 1 Oct 2012

The market did pull backed resulting in a red candle for the week. Is it going to be dip in an uptrend or start of a correction? Let’s take a look at what the chart says.

MACDH ticked down on the weekly. RSI did a pull back into neutral zone from its overbought level. The support level must hold (SPX 1425; Dow 13250) for me to believe the market is still on its way UP.

The daily charts suggested to me it is ranging on the side ways without the weekly UP trend. An it is near the bottom of its range. If you believe the market is UP, this is your chance to buy a dip in the uptrend.

The VIX last week has responded to the MACDH Div (weekly chart) and made a rally off its low. The EMA is looking to crossed. If it does cross in the week of 1 Oct, VIX might rally to $19. Causing some worries for the bull.

Since on the weekly VIX, EMA has not crossed, i would take it as the trend is still ranging within its downtrend. This take is in tune to its daily outlook. The daily is ranging, and it has rallied to the top of its range last week, and pulled back below $16 (ST resistance) causing a possible failed upside breakout.


Mid Term View:
Market is still UP for as long as the support holds.

Short term view:
The market already did a pull back. It is not uncommon to see 1st week of Oct in bearish mode causing a scare to all BULLs. But as long as the support holds (even if it breaks support but rallied back above the support zone), the uptrend view is still intact.

If the big picture’s supports are broken, and VIX rallied above $17 and stays there, let’s re-assess the market again.

NOTE: All information provided “as is” for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice.